Can Rep. Lauren Boebert overcome scandals and a district switch to win District 4, or will Dem Trisha Calvarese flip a conservative district?

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GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert speaks in Elizabeth
Caitlyn Kim/CPR News
GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert speaks to the Elbert County GOP on Friday, Oct 26, in Elizabeth. She made her final pitch for a new seat and urged Republicans to get out the vote.

On a recent Friday morning, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert stood at the front of a small church located in a strip mall in Elizabeth. Facing chairs packed with members of the Elbert County GOP, the congresswoman was greeted with loud applause.

“I am from the federal government. I'm here to help,” she joked to the crowd, getting a laugh for her mocking riff on Ronald Reagan’s old saying, “and make sure that these Democrats are not going to take your freedoms.”

Since first running for Congress on the other side of the state four years ago, the twists and turns of Boebert’s political path have continued to surprise and shock Colorado’s political establishment.

The latest chapter in her political saga started after her 2022 reelection run, when she almost lost her seat in the 3rd District. Since then, she’s survived a scandal over her disruptive behavior at a theater performance and moved across the state to run and represent the 4th District. 

The move, which her political opponents panned as carpetbagging, put her in the state’s most reliably red congressional district, encompassing the Eastern Plains and conservative Front Range communities in Douglas, Larimer and Weld counties. 

As she talked to this friendly crowd at the Elizabeth event, Boebert hit on her usual roster of national issues – particularly claims of an open border and the crime and fentanyl overdoses she associates with it. But she also took time to address issues closer to home and show her knowledge of her new district.

“I'm also fighting alongside of you for our local issues, for our resources, for our water, for our energy development, for our economic development,” she said, before joking that Elbert County, which has struggled with concerns about growth in recent years, wasn’t interested in any more economic development. 

Boebert’s message in this final week of the campaign is one that has been a theme of her career in Congress: less government.

“We are fighting for that American dream so people do not have to rely on the government for their food, their healthcare, their housing, wondering what their next day is going to look like. We want less D.C. in our lives,” she said.

LAUREN BOEBERT PRIMARY ELECTION WATCH PARTY IN WINDSOR
Hart Van Denburg/CPR News
Colorado GOP congresswoman Lauren Boebert hosted a 4th Congressional District Primary election watch party Tuesday evening, June 25, at RainDance National Resort and Golf Club in Windsor.

But Boebert brought some D.C. with her to this meeting. Stumping for her were House GOP Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota and GOP Rep. Beth Van Duyne of Texas, who both sang Boebert’s praises and urged the crowd to get out the vote.

“We got to get our family, our friends, our neighbors, our coworkers. It's time to stand up, speak up, cast a vote, and get started on saving this country,” Emmer implored the crowd. “If we do that, you're going to send Lauren Boebert back with the biggest number she's ever had.”

Boebert barely survived her last reelection in her Republican-leaning district, winning by 546 votes. It was a strong sign that voters had wearied of the congresswoman, who gained more media coverage for her antics and insults of fellow congress members, than her actual legislative work. 

Facing both a serious primary challenge and a potential rematch with her previous Democratic challenger, Boebert made the surprise move late last year to run for election in the seat being vacated by GOP Rep. Ken Buck. 

That shift put her in a district where Republicans make up almost 34 percent of registered active voters and Democrats are only about 15 percent, with the largest bloc being unaffiliated at 47 percent.

If Boebert had to move to stay in office, that’s fine with Elizbeth Republican Kimberly Eckhout.

“I like her personality. She's pretty fearless, which you have to be now if you're in Congress,” she said.

Eckhout said she remembered when members of Congress were willing to work together to get things done.

“There seems to be a faction where they’re like, ‘No, we don’t have to do that anymore.’ That’s a dangerous place to head,” she said.

But when it was pointed out that Boebert has often been part of that no-compromise bloc in the House — standing against the selection of Kevin McCarthy as speaker and voting against rules to advance Republican bills — Eckhout said, “she’s contending back. She’s giving back what she’s getting. But in general, I don’t like to see that, but that’s kind of the way you have to play.”

Republican William King didn’t back Boebert in the GOP primary for the seat, but he’s backing her now.

“We've selected our candidate and it's the job of the Republican Party to elect Republicans and take control of the House,” he explained. “Therefore, we stand behind those people, alright. And the other issues are maybe still there and we can discuss them privately, but no, the support has to be unity.”

He thinks there is a lot of support for Boebert in the district because she “doesn’t waiver on the issues that are important to all Republicans right now.”

The Democratic candidate trying to get Republicans to give her a chance

Despite the district’s partisan history, Democrat Trisha Calvarese is doing her best to derail Boebert’s straight shot back to the House.

Calvarese grew up in Highlands Ranch with conservative Republican parents. She moved back to the district last year to provide end-of-life care for them.

Democratic candidate Trisha Calvarese shares her campaign message with volunteers
Caitlyn Kim/CPR News
Democratic candidate Trisha Calvarese shares her campaign message with volunteers as they get ready to knock on doors in Highlands Ranch on Saturday, Oct 27.

She’s running because she thinks the district needs someone who will look out for all of its residents, at a human level, and the real world challenges they face.

“I'm running to put people before party. Because I've been there,” she explained. “I went through a horrible experience of providing end-of-life care for both of my parents. I had so much support and structures in place. And so many people in our district do not have that. Everyone deserves a representative who's going to fight for them.”

On a Saturday morning, Calvarese joined about two dozen volunteers at a park in Highlands Ranch, as they prepared to knock on doors.

Like Boebert, Calvarese also had some congressional help firing up the crowd: Democratic Rep. Jason Crow, who used to represent the area before redistricting.

“[Boebert] represents the worst of politics and what Americans’ view of politics. Somebody who couldn't give a damn about her district, somebody who's interested in her own profile and her own celebrity and just getting attention,” he said.

Crow noted that while he and former congressman Ken Buck had little in common, they found issues where they could work together.

“We have higher expectations of our elected officials. We expect people to deliver. We expect people to protect your families and you,” he said.

Trisha Calvarese volunteers gather at a park
Caitlyn Kim/CPR News
Volunteers get their materials together as they go out to canvas in Douglas County for Democratic congressional candidate Trisha Calvarese and other Democratic candidates up and down the ballot.

Calvarese is focusing on a few policy issues in the final week before the election, things about Boebert that she told volunteers the data shows can move the needle with voters.

“Number one: she does not support veterans. She voted against care for veterans exposed to cancer, causing toxins during war,” she said, highlighting Boebert’s vote against the PACT Act, which extended health benefits to veterans exposed to toxins during their service.

Boebert has said she voted against it because of cost and concerns that the Veterans Administration would be overwhelmed. She has highlighted 11 amendments supporting veterans she got adopted to bills, but have not become law.

Calvarese is also attacking Boebert’s support for the Life at Conception Act, which could threaten access to IVF, something that many families in Douglas County, the most populous county in the district, have sought out.

And finally, Calvarese wants to make sure voters don’t forget about Boebert’s district-hopping move from Rifle to Windsor.  

That’s what brought Highlands Ranch resident Valerie Echeveste out to volunteer for Calvarese’s campaign. 

She explained, “Having Boebert come over to our district, when she's not from here and doesn't represent things that I value, (it) feels important to try to help elect Trisha Calvarese in order to have somebody who I believe in fighting for this community and this district in Congress.” 

Volunteer Ben Bunker, also from Highlands Ranch, said he was knocking on doors for Calvarese because he believes voters should go beyond party and look at the person.

“[Boebert] really isn't a person who's from here (or) represents the people here. And to just have folks vote and default into their tribal camps is really not the way we're going to move things forward,” Bunker said.

Calvarese knows she’s got a mountain to climb to beat Boebert in a district that is this strongly Republican, but she insists she can win enough of them over to make a difference. 

“My very first endorsement was from a Republican and that was from my dad,” she said. ”People want common sense solutions and they want actual progress, whether it's a Farm Bill or continuing to invest in our infrastructure… to creating good jobs of the future.”

The dynamics of this race aren’t quite as simple as Republican vs. Democrat. There’s also a Libertarian in the race, Hannah Goodman, who could potentially siphon votes from Boebert. Her presence on the ballot gives voters, Republicans in particular, who have reservations about Boebert, another choice beyond the Democrat. In a vacancy election this summer to fill Buck’s seat for the remainder of this Congress, Goodman got around 9,000 votes, five percent of the total (Boebert was not on the ballot for that race).

While a Calvarese win is a longshot, many will be watching the election night results closely.

Past Republicans have won in the 4th with around 60 percent of the vote. Anything much lower than that for Boebert could be a warning sign she hasn’t left her electoral problems behind in her old seat.